Stacked bar chart showing hurricane forecasts

Insights

• The intensity of the storm is likely to be constant over the next 24 hours, remaining at least Category 3 for 2 days.
• The system will probably become a tropical storm within 3 days, remaining for 5 days.
• Categories 4 and 5 are possible but not likely.

Original graphic

Original text

I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       X       X       X       X       2       5
TROP DEPRESSION  X       X       X       X       2       5      15
TROPICAL STORM   X       1       2       5      18      39      50
HURRICANE       99      99      98      95      80      54      30
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1        1       4      14      19      35      35      23
HUR CAT 2        6      18      29      29      24      12       6
HUR CAT 3       74      58      42      32      16       6       2
HUR CAT 4       17      18      11      12       5       1       X
HUR CAT 5        1       2       2       2       1       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND  110KT   110KT   105KT   105KT    95KT    80KT    70KT  

Revisions

1. A table has been transformed into a graphic.
2. The percentages are used in an Excel stacked 'column' chart.
3. All of the storm classifications have been included in the percentages, but 2 different hues are used to distinguish hurricanes from storms/depressions.

Source and acknowledgement

2010/10/06